Peak Oil - the maximum global oil production, which has been or will be achieved. Theoretically, peak oil has been predicted American geophysicist King Hubbert, who created the model of the known reserves and assumed in 1956, in an article *, presented at the American Petroleum Institute that oil production in the mainland United States would peak between 1965 and 1970, and that global production will reach peak in 2000
Oil production in the U.S. peaked in 1971 [2] (in English), and has been decreasing since then. World production is not reached its maximum in 2000, proponents of the theory of peak oil offer the explanation that Hubbert's model did not account for the OPEC oil embargo in 1973 and 1979., Which reduced global oil consumption and delayed peak.
Since oil is a non-renewable resource, it is inevitable that one day global production will peak. Hubbert's theory is that the same calculations that successfully predicted the peak of oil production in the United States applicable to other cases, such as the peak of global oil production. Various estimates have been published world-time peak as Hubbert and others, and some of these dates in the past. This has led to criticism of his method and the predictions made using it.
Hubbert's theory is a constant subject of discussion because of the potential effects of decline in oil production, but also because of constant debate about energy policy. Range of views on the effect of the passage of Hubbert's peak extends from the belief that the market economy will provide a solution to the doomsday scenario for the world economy, unable to meet their energy needs.
Some oil executives, economists and analysts doubt that the theory of Hubbert's peak is applicable worldwide. On the other hand, Chevron has launched a promotional campaign Join you in our ranks?, Seeking to inform the public about the possible exhaustion of oil and to support the discussion of this issue. Web page campaign notes the conclusions made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) (in English) in the report «World Energy Outlook 2004", "Fossil fuels currently supply most of the world's energy, and will continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Although the current supply of large, they do not last. Oil production is decreasing in 33 of the 48 countries with the greatest generation, ... "
and unconventional oil deposits.
It should be noted that the original wording of the Hubbert treated "theoretical unlimited area" and that the model must be amended if there are significant man-made noise (eg, political or related to the protection of the environment).
Predicting the peak
Few would dispute that fossil fuel reserves are finite, and there will need alternative sources of energy. However, many critics argue that the peak is not going to happen in the near future and that the shape of the peak will be wrong, and the general, and not sharp as the Hubbert curve. As for any other mathematical model, the accuracy of the prediction is limited reliable baseline data. If variables are estimated incorrectly, the formula will give the wrong results.
In 1971, Hubbert used the estimates of global oil reserves above and below, to predict that global oil production would peak between 1995 and 2000. Association for Research on Peak Oil and Gas (ASPO) has calculated that the annual peak production of crude oil from conventional sources was in early 2004. Note, however, that the events that took place after Hubbert's prediction, could postpone the peak - in particular, the oil crisis of 1973, during which reduce the supply of oil has led to a shortage of oil, and, ultimately, to its less consumption. A surge in oil prices in 1990 due to the Gulf War was similar to the 1973 oil crisis impact on the offer, though not as strong as the last. On the demand side, the recession of the early 1980's and 90's. reduced demand for oil and its consumption. All these effects are, in general, to postpone peak oil.
ASPO was founded geologist Colin Campbell. Based on current information about known oil deposits, estimated value of future discoveries, increasing demand for oil and the available technology, ASPO predicts that world oil production would peak around 2010 peak of production of natural gas is expected between 2010 and 2020 (*), but from due to the difficulties of transporting the relatively volatile substance, the peak will depend on the region.
In 2004, the world consumed 30 billion barrels of oil over the same time was open only eight billion barrels of new reserves. Huge, easily mined deposits, just probably a thing of the past. In August 2005, the International Energy Agency said global consumption of 84.9 million barrels a day, or more than 31 billion barrels a year. This means that the excess of production over consumption now stands at 2 Mb / d (million barrels per day). Current stocks in the OECD cover 54 days of consumption, and a further 37 days are covered by reserves in case of emergencies.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates (in English) that the oil reserves are sufficient to continue production for 50-100 years at the current rate of extraction. USGS study of world oil reserves, dated 2000, predicts a possible peak oil around 2037 on the objection is a senior Saudi oil industry insider who claims that the prediction of the U.S. government regarding the future supply of oil is a "dangerous exaggeration" [3] (born ). Campbell defends the position that the USGS estimates using the wrong methodology. For example, the OPEC countries exaggerate their reserves to get bigger quotas and to avoid internal critique. Population growth and economic might in the future lead to an increase in oil demand.
Finally, estimates of oil reserves, made USGS, possibly based on political considerations, however, than on research. According to the Information Department of the Energy Department of Energy, "estimates are based on non-technical considerations that support the growth of supply in the United States to the level needed to meet the projected demand." (Annual Energy Outlook 2007 with projections to 2030 (English)).
British Council on Energy Research predicts the onset of "peak oil" in the 2020s, the International Energy Agency - in 2030.
Energy return on investment
In the mid-nineteenth century, when the production of oil, the largest oil deposits mined fifty barrels of oil for every barrel consumed in the production, transportation and refining. This ratio is often referred to as the "energy-return investment» («Energy Return on Investment»). This ratio becomes less and less over time: currently producing between one and five barrels of oil for every invested in mining barrel. The reason for this reduction in performance that extract oil becomes increasingly difficult as the depletion of the deposit.
When this ratio reaches a level at which to extract one barrel should expend the amount of energy contained in a barrel, the oil no longer be used as a primary energy source. At that level, the energy used for oil production, to come from alternative energy sources.
Some other types of energy easier - thanks to the concentration of energy and relative safety at room temperature and atmospheric pressure, petrol is uniquely suited for transport. Oil is also suitable as a chemical raw material, as opposed to energy sources such as wind and sunlight. It is therefore possible that the extraction and refining of oil will continue even after the energy output will be negative.
Public response
Information on the studies Hubbert's theory of Peak Oil is becoming more prominent sociological phenomenon. Increased the number of people studying or interested in the theory Habbertovskogo peak oil depletion and concerns about the potential long-term consequences for society and the people involved in informing the public about peak oil.
Possible effects of peak oil
Initially, the peak of oil production will manifest as structural global oil shortage. The effects of such shortages will depend on the rate of decrease of production, as well as the development and implementation of alternatives. If the alternatives do not appear, many of the goods and services produced with the use of oil, will be in short supply, which will lead to a reduction in living standards in all countries.
There is also the likely political consequences of "peak oil."
In 1976, William Ofals published the book "Ecology and Politics of limited resources," * which states that as the main control system of the Western world have evolved between 1700 and 1900-mi-mi, these systems are very generous terms of natural resources, and began their imply. Our system of government, etc., are taken for granted (and depend on) unlimited growth and virtually unlimited natural resources, including oil and natural gas. The word "shortage" - not welcome in today's political discourse. This fact reduces the ability of governments to consider and mitigate the impending social and political issues related to the "peak oil."
Alternatives to conventional oil fields
Alternatives to oil are the sources of energy, replacing oil in one or more applications, including: as a primary source of energy, fuel for transport and as an ingredient in plastics and pesticides. Alternatives include tar sands, oil shale, and coal liquefaction and gasification. When conventional oil will enter a phase of exhaustion, the world will increasingly rely on these alternative sources of energy, but so far none of them are quite cheap, clean (do not pollute the environment) and available in quantities of at least close to the great everyday largest consumer of oil and natural gas in the world.
Current events related to oil
In late 2005, as the price of oil, Hubbert's theory and its potential consequences are attracting increasing attention. Volatility of oil and gas is notorious, and prices could be caused by many other factors, but most agree that increased demand, particularly from China and India, was the most important factor. This growth in demand is quickly approaching the peak Hubbert.
Oil prices
On June 2005, OPEC admitted that they 'hardly' be able to get enough oil to alleviate price pressure in the fourth quarter. It was expected that the summer and winter of 2008, oil prices will rise more, some have argued that this is a classic example of the excess of demand over supply. Others may explain it all sorts of geopolitical factors in the regions of oil production. Another possible explanation for rising prices - is that they are caused by too much paper money, not too little oil. According to this view, a sharp rise in prices of all commodities and real estate point to rising inflation. Although spring and summer of 2008 the price of oil has reached record levels in the $ 140 a barrel by the fall she fell below $ 40 a barrel.
In Russia recorded decline in production, although the government forecast says that growth will continue through 2030.
Experts also predict that at prices below $ 80 per barrel profitability is negative: no drilling will be.
Criticism
Hubbert model is controversial. Some economists are of the oil industry, for example, Michael Lynch (born), lead (in English) is the argument that the Hubbert curve, which has a sharp peak, is not applicable because of differences in global oil reserves, military and political factors, demand, and trade partnerships between countries and regions.
Critics like Leonardo Maugeri indicate that the proponents of Hubbert's peak, for example, Campbell, in the past predicted a peak in global oil production in 1989 and 1995, based on the then available data on volumes of production. Maugeri says that almost all of the estimates do not take into account the non-standard sources of oil, although the volume of these available resources are enormous, and the cost of production, albeit very high, decreasing due to improvements in technology. However, this position is offset by increasing consumption of all - for the last 35 years it has grown from 20 to 30 billion barrels per year. [Citation 28 days]
Further, he notes that the percentage of oil recovery from existing fields has increased from about 22% in 1980 to 35% today, with new technologies and predicts that this trend will continue in the future. According Maugeri, the ratio between proven oil reserves and current production increased steadily, from 20 years in 1948 to 35 in 1972 and reaching about 40 years in 2003. He also claims that this progress has been achieved despite the low investment in exploration and improvement of technologies due to low oil prices in the past 20 years. The current high prices may cause an increase in investment *.
At present, the debate focused on energy policy, as well as on whether to transfer the funding to increase the fuel efficiency and the development of alternative energy sources such as solar and nuclear energy. Those who disagree with Campbell, for example, Michael Lynch *, defend the position that it is not enough research done carefully. They point to the approaching date of the peak, which was initially predicted for 2000, but is now pushed back to 2010, but Campbell and his supporters insist that when it reaches peak production is not as important as the realization that he will come. Freddy Hutter * is his most persistent critic. During 2001-2003 in its monthly bulletin Campbell claimed that he made in 1996, the prediction of peak oil in 2000, no one has denied, despite Hutter notice an increase in production levels. Finally, in its April 2004 newsletter Campbell gave in and moved the peak in 2010. Then he changed the date to 2007, but in October 2005, returned in 2010. These shifts are due date predicted systemic lack of accurate information on oil. We'll know for sure only after the peak will be reached - and that not once, but perhaps years later.
